LouS
· ·Mrs Nataf's Other SonIn doing a little updating of the database today, I came across a little case study in today's watch market. This is a G381 that was listed on italian Ebay in June 2014 by a Genoese seller for USD6800 - local pickup only.
Of course it didn't sell. Apart from the price, this "local pickup only" thing is a deal-killer.
In Feb 2015, the same seller has gotten over his fear of couriers, upped his photo game (a bit) and re-lists for worldwide delivery with a wanker's reserve around USD4900.
Still no sale. At some point thereafter, a deal is done off of Ebay and the watch gets listed by an amateur dealer in MIlwaukee for a BIN of USD12995.
Amateur he may be, but he knows how to puff up a watch on ebay - lots of "tropical," "Unique," and "one of a kind." He lucks into an endorsement on Hodinkee's What's Selling Where and he sells for USD10150 (thanks, LarryG - see below for how he found out)
There are several interesting aspects to this, and I could go any number of ways, but the thing that I'll focus on is buyer ignorance. Some buyer ponied up a big check for a wretchedly overpolished (and I'm leaving my general distaste for damaged dials out of it) watch on the strength of some slightly better than average copy on Ebay and a public endorsement from a watch blog. The same buyer had a crack at it for half the price it ultimately sold for a month ago, if he could be bothered to do his own searches. He might also have found the listing with a "completed Items" search after the fact, but even due diligence seems too much trouble. He might also have looked at the plenty of examples on the web - heck, on this forum: https://omegaforums.net/threads/lightning-strikes-five-times-gold-el-primero-g-381.3324/
But he didn't. I know I'm being kind of hard on the guy, but this one is a bit over the top.
Back to ignorance: Prices are skyrocketing - broadly. When this is the sort of thing that determines watch prices, it reeks of bubble to me. Vintage watches are - regrettably - a "thing" now and every men's fashion magazine reader wants one. One out of ten might hang around to get an eddication after stepping in it (and we all have stepped in it at one time or another); the other nine will be off to chase the next thing their men's magazines tells them is cool in six months along with their money. It'll be interesting to see what happens to prices then.
Of course it didn't sell. Apart from the price, this "local pickup only" thing is a deal-killer.
In Feb 2015, the same seller has gotten over his fear of couriers, upped his photo game (a bit) and re-lists for worldwide delivery with a wanker's reserve around USD4900.
Still no sale. At some point thereafter, a deal is done off of Ebay and the watch gets listed by an amateur dealer in MIlwaukee for a BIN of USD12995.
Amateur he may be, but he knows how to puff up a watch on ebay - lots of "tropical," "Unique," and "one of a kind." He lucks into an endorsement on Hodinkee's What's Selling Where and he sells for USD10150 (thanks, LarryG - see below for how he found out)
There are several interesting aspects to this, and I could go any number of ways, but the thing that I'll focus on is buyer ignorance. Some buyer ponied up a big check for a wretchedly overpolished (and I'm leaving my general distaste for damaged dials out of it) watch on the strength of some slightly better than average copy on Ebay and a public endorsement from a watch blog. The same buyer had a crack at it for half the price it ultimately sold for a month ago, if he could be bothered to do his own searches. He might also have found the listing with a "completed Items" search after the fact, but even due diligence seems too much trouble. He might also have looked at the plenty of examples on the web - heck, on this forum: https://omegaforums.net/threads/lightning-strikes-five-times-gold-el-primero-g-381.3324/
But he didn't. I know I'm being kind of hard on the guy, but this one is a bit over the top.
Back to ignorance: Prices are skyrocketing - broadly. When this is the sort of thing that determines watch prices, it reeks of bubble to me. Vintage watches are - regrettably - a "thing" now and every men's fashion magazine reader wants one. One out of ten might hang around to get an eddication after stepping in it (and we all have stepped in it at one time or another); the other nine will be off to chase the next thing their men's magazines tells them is cool in six months along with their money. It'll be interesting to see what happens to prices then.
Edited: